Baba Jamal Unlikely to Exceed 38% in Ayawaso East NDC Primary – Global InfoAnalytics
February 7,2026
New projections suggest that Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, faces an uphill task in the Ayawaso East National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary, with his support projected to peak at 38 per cent.
According to a final pre-election forecast released by Global InfoAnalytics, Baba Jamal is unlikely to surpass that margin in the primary scheduled for Saturday, February 7, 2026.
Presenting the findings, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, indicated that Baba Jamal’s closest competitor, Hajia Amina Adam, holds a decisive advantage going into the polls. Hajia Amina, the widow of the late Ayawaso East MP, Mahama Naser Toure, is projected to secure about 54 per cent of the total delegate votes, enough to win the contest outright.
Mr Dankwah explained that the 38 per cent projection represents Baba Jamal’s strongest possible showing, even under the most favourable campaign conditions.
Despite his political experience and high-profile return from Abuja to contest the seat, the data suggest that Baba Jamal has been unable to significantly dent Hajia Amina’s strong grassroots appeal, which appears driven by a mix of sympathy and continuity among party supporters.
The survey also examined narratives suggesting that Hajia Amina should not contest the seat. Findings showed that 66 per cent of NDC party members and 58 per cent of delegates rejected that view, indicating that the argument has gained little traction within the constituency.
Mr Dankwah noted that this disconnect points to a misreading of local political dynamics, particularly in the Nima and Kanda areas.
With a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, the pollster maintained that even a favourable swing for Baba Jamal would still leave him trailing by a significant margin.
While Baba Jamal’s projected support reflects his standing as a former deputy minister and legal practitioner, analysts say it may not be sufficient to overcome the momentum behind Hajia Amina’s campaign.
Polling is underway at the Nima Cluster of Schools, as party delegates head to the polls to determine the NDC’s parliamentary candidate for the constituency.
